Im an atmospheric physicist. Ive published more than 200 scientific papers. For 30 years I taught at MIT during which time the climate has changed remarkably little. But the cry of global warming has grown ever more shrill. In fact it seems that the less the climate changes, the louder the voices of the climate alarmists get. So lets clear the air and create a more accurate picture of where we really stand on the issue of global warming or as it is now called climate change. There are basically three groups of people dealing with this issue. Groups one and two are scientists. Group three consists mostly at its core of politicians environmentalists and the media. Group one is associated with the scientific part of the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change or IPCC (Working Group 1). These are scientists who mostly believe that recent climate change is primarily due to mans burning of fossil fuels—oil coal and natural gas. This releases C02 carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and they believe this might eventually dangerously heat the planet. Group two is made up of scientists who dont see this as an especially serious problem. This is the group I belong to. Were usually referred to as skeptics. We note that there are many reasons why the climate changes—the sun clouds, oceans, the orbital variations of the earth as well as a myriad of other inputs. None of these is fully understood, and there is no evidence that CO2 emissions are the dominant factor. But actually there is much agreement between both groups of scientists. The following are such points of agreement:

1) The climate is always changing.

2) CO2 is a greenhouse gas without which life on earth is not possible but adding it to the atmosphere should lead to some warming.

3) Atmospheric levels of CO2 have been increasing since the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century.

4) Over this period (the past two centuries) the global mean temperature has increased slightly and erratically by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit or one degree Celsius; but only since the 1960s have mans greenhouse emissions been sufficient to play a role.

5) Given the complexity of climate no confident prediction about future global mean temperature or its impact can be made. The IPCC acknowledged in its own 2007 report that “The long term prediction of future climate states is not possible.

Most importantly the scenario that the burning of fossil fuel leads to catastrophe isn’t part of what either group asserts. So why are so many people worried indeed panic stricken about this issue. Heres where Group Three comes in the politicians environmentalists and media. Global warming alarmism provides them more than any other issue with the things they most want: For politicians its money and power. For environmentalists its money for their organizations and confirmation of their near religious devotion to the idea that man is a destructive force acting upon nature. And for the media its ideology money and headlines. Doomsday scenarios sell.

Meanwhile over the last decade scientists outside of climate physics have jumped on the bandwagon publishing papers blaming global warming for everything from acne to the Syrian civil war. And crony capitalists have eagerly grabbed for the subsidies that governments have so lavishly provided.

Unfortunately group three is winning the argument because they have drowned out the serious debate that should be going on. But while politicians environmentalists and media types can waste a lot of money and scare a lot of people they wont be able to bury the truth. The climate will have the final word on that.

Im Richard Lindzen, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences at MIT for Prager University